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IRAHSS 2010

About the Symposium

International Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning Symposium 2010

The 3rd International Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning Symposium will be held from 15 to 16 March 2010 at the Raffles City Convention Centre in Singapore.

About 300 international participants are expected for the by-invitation-only symposium, mainly from governments, think tanks and private enterprises with a strong interest in horizon scanning.

The symposium will:

  1. promote active dialogue on risk assessment and horizon scanning concepts, methods and technologies
  2. provide the opportunity for Singapore to share its Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning or RAHS programme with an international audience
  3. encourage active collaboration in RAHS concepts, methods and technologies, through experimentation.

The theme for the symposium is "Strategic Anticipation: Developing Effective Strategies for the Future". 25 speakers of international repute will be sharing useful approaches to emerging future challenges, with an emphasis on practical policy implications.

A technology showcase featuring state-of-the-art software tools from our commercial partners in Singapore and around the world would also be held in conjunction with IRAHSS 2010.

This event is jointly organised by the National Security Coordination Secretariat, the Defence Science and Technology Agency and the Centre of Excellence for National Security.

Click here to view our Draft Programme Overview.

Panel 1: INTERNATIONAL ORGANISATIONS: A SURVEY OF STRATEGIC ANTICIPATION PROGRAMMES

Panel 1 Speakers' Biography & Presentation
ADRIAN TAYLOR (Moderator)
Consultant, 4Sing: Foresight and Strategy for Security and Sustainability in Governance, Germany.
Biography

Foresight and Designing Policy: The Experience of the OECD
MICHAEL OBORNE

Director, Strategic Foresight, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation | Video

Scenario Planning and Strategic Foresight Activities of the World Economic Forum
KRISTEL VAN DER ELST

Director, Head of Scenario Planning, World Economic Forum.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation | Video

Strategic Anticipation at the World Bank
PAUL ORMONDE-JAMES

Head of Global Intelligence, International Finance Corporation, World Bank Group.
Biography | Abstract | Video

Building Strategic Intelligence to Anticipate Global Challenges
MARK BODEN

Head, Research Policy Mixes and Foresight Sector, Knowledge for Growth Unit, European Commission Joint Research Centre.
Biography | Abstract

Panel 1 Summary & Q&A

Video (part 1) | Video (part 2)

Day 1: Lunch Speaker 1

Lunch Speakers' Biography & Presentation
DAWN YIP (Moderator)
Director, Soulbreath Consulting, Singapore.
Biography

(Serious) Gaming and Simulation for Policy Analysis and Planning
IGOR S. MAYER

Director, Delft Centre for Process Management and Simulation, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation

Panel 2: BUSINESS SCHOOLS: DECISION MAKING IN A COMPLEX WORLD

Panel 2 Speakers' Biography & Presentation
GARY KLEIN (Moderator)
Chief Scientist, Klein Associates Division, Applied Research Associates, Inc., USA.
Biography | Presentation

What Might "Decision Making" Become in a More Complex World?
RAFAEL RAMÍREZ

Fellow in Strategic Management, Saïd Business School, Oxford University, UK.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation | Video

Mental Models of Risk and Uncertainty: How they Affect and are Affected by Decision Making
GERARD P. HODGKINSON

Director, Centre for Organisational Strategy, Learning and Change, Leeds University Business School, UK.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation | Video

Neuro-Strategy®: Decision Making in Uncertain Times
IANNA CONTARDO

Strategy Professor, Institute de Empresa Business School, Spain.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation | Video

Decision Making with Risk and Uncertainty
ANIL GABA

Director, Centre for Decision Making and Risk Analysis (CDMRA), Asia Pacific Institute of Finance, INSEAD, Singapore.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation | Video

Panel 2 Summary & Q&A

Video

Panel 3: IN CONVERSATION: NEW CHALLENGES AND FUTURE GLOBAL ISSUES

Panel 3 Speakers' Biography & Presentation
PAUL SAFFO (Moderator)
Consulting Associate Professor, Stanford University, USA.
Biography

Top Risks: Emerging Long Term Political Trends
IAN BREMMER

President, Eurasia Group, USA.
Biography | Abstract | Video

The Global Economy in 2010
RICHARD O'BRIEN

Partner, Outsights, UK.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation | Video

Cyberdemocracy, Equity and Sustainable Development
CLEMENT BEZOLD

Chairman and Founder, Institute for Alternative Futures, USA.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation | Video

Forecasting the Technology Revolution: Historic Breakthroughs, 2015 Economic Boom, and Global Crisis of Maturity
WILLIAM E. HALAL

Professor Emeritus of Science, Technology and Innovation, George Washington University, USA.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation | Video

Value Creation "After" the Acute Phase of the Financial Crisis
STEVEN WEBER

Professor of Political Science and The Information School, University of California, Berkeley, USA.
Biography

Global Security and Economy 2011-2025
SUNDEEP WASLEKAR

President, Strategic Foresight Group, India.
Biography | Abstract | Video

Panel 3 Summary & Q&A

Video (part 1) | Video (part 2) | Video (part 3)

Day 2: Lunch Speaker 2

Lunch Speakers' Biography & Presentation
DAWN YIP (Moderator)
Director, Soulbreath Consulting, Singapore.
Biography

Applications of Sentiment Analysis
LARRY LEVY

Co-Founder, Chairman and CEO, Jodange, USA.
Biography | Presentation

Panel 4: NEW APPROACHES FOR STRATEGIC ANTICIPATION

Panel 4 Speakers' Biography & Presentation
DAWN YIP (Moderator)
Director, Soulbreath Consulting, Singapore.
Biography

Better Scanning and Beyond: Old Ideas and New Frontiers for Foresight
MICHAEL MARIEN

Founder and Editor, Future Survey (1979-2009), USA.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation | Video

The Change Lab Approach to Addressing Highly Complex Social Challenges
ADAM KAHANE

Partner, Reos Partners, USA.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation | Video

Forecasting Through Simulation: The International Futures (IFs) Way
BARRY B. HUGHES

Director, Frederick S. Pardee Centre for International Futures, University of Denver, USA.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation | Video

Changing Philosophy, Changing Methods: Building Futures Literacy for Policy Making and as Policy
RIEL MILLER

Founder, xperidox: futures consulting, France.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation (Part 1) (Part 2) | Video

Panel 4 Summary & Q&A

Video
Closing
IRAHSS 2010 Closing Remarks
David Snowden

Founder and Chief Scientific Officer, Cognitive Edge, United Kingdom.
Biography | Presentation | Video

Symposium Report
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