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IRAHSS 2008

About the Symposium

International Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning Symposium 2008

The 2nd International Risk Assessment And Horizon Scanning Symposium or IRAHSS 08 was held from 13 to 14 Oct 08 in Singapore.

It was a great success, and we would like to thank our partners and participants for the work well done.

This symposium aimed to

  1. promote active dialogue on RAHS concepts, methods and technologies
  2. share Singapore's RAHS programme with an international audience and
  3. encourage active collaboration into concepts research and technology R&D and experimentation.

The theme for IRAHSS 08 was "Realising the Vision: Challenges and Solutions". IRAHSS 08 addressed the implementation and challenges for operationalizing horizon scanning in government and across various domains. 19 speakers of international repute who have worked in and contributed to the field of horizon scanning provided practical insights to its operationalization. To add value to IRAHSS 08, a technology showcase featured state-of-the-art software tools from our commercial partners based in Singapore and from around the world.

This event was jointly organised by the National Security Coordination Secretariat, the Defence Science and Technology Agency and the Centre of Excellence for National Security. We gathered about 200 international participants for the symposium mainly from governments, think tanks and private enterprises with a strong interest in horizon scanning.

Day 1: Cocktail Reception Speaker

Cocktail Reception Speakers' Biography & Presentation
Mobile Networks and Horizon Scanning
ERIC WILLIS

CTO, Offbeat Guides, United States.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation

Panel 1: HORIZON SCANNING IN GOVERNMENT AND SOCIETY

Panel 1 Speakers' Biography & Presentation
This panel will show how horizon scanning is implemented in government and how it makes an impact on strategic early warning and planning. It will enable the participants to make a comparison across different countries and to appreciate some of the best practices.

CHAN HENG KEE (Moderator)
Deputy Secretary, Public Service Division, Prime Minister's Office and Dean, Civil Service College, Singapore.
Biography

Counter Terrorism Strategic Early Warning: The JCTC Journey
YEONG GAH HOU

Director, Joint Counter Terrorism Centre, Prime Minister's Office, Singapore.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation

The United Kingdom's Concept of National Risk Assessment
MICHAEL CHARLTON-WEEDY

Chief Executive, Cabinet Office Emergency Planning College, United Kingdom.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation

Finland's Whole-of-Society Approach to Horizon Scanning
SIRKKA HEINONEN

Professor of Futures Research, Finland Research Centre, Finland.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation

Forward Engagement, Complexity and Public Policy
LEON FUERTH

Research Professor, Elliott School, George Washington University, United States.
Biography | Abstract

Day 1: Keynote Speaker 1

Keynote Speakers' Biography & Presentation
DAWN YIP (Moderator)
Director, Soulbreath Consulting, Singapore.
Biography

Twine.com – Collective Intelligence for Horizon Scanning
NOVA SPIVACK

CEO & Founder, Radar Networks, United States.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation

Panel 2: HORIZON SCANNING APPROACHES

Panel 2 Speakers' Biography & Presentation
Moving away from abstract concepts, this panel will highlight practical horizon scanning approaches that have been operationalized in various domains. The focus will be on illustrating the strengths and limitations of horizon scanning approaches with case studies. Speakers will cover a range of approaches, from decision-based scenario planning to horizon scanning based on complexity and chaos theory as well as "evolutionary" and effects-based approaches.

TAN PENG YAM (Moderator)
Deputy Chief Executive (Operations), Defence Science and Technology Agency, Singapore.
Biography

Strategy and Planning for Deeply Uncertain Futures
STEVEN POPPER

Senior Economist, RAND Corporation, and Co-Founder and Chief Operating Officer, Evolving Logic, United States.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation

Strategic Thinking in a Complex World
IRENE SANDERS

Executive Director, Washington Center for Complexity and Public Policy, United States.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation

How our Brains use the Past to Predict the Future
ANDREW J. PARKER

Professor of Physiology, University of Oxford, United Kingdom.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation

Consequence Appreciative Choice: A Framework for Assessing the Propagation of "Effects" on Human Complex Systems
DESMOND SAUNDERS-NEWTON

Adjunct Associate Professor, University of Southern California and Director of Social Computation & Complexity, BAE SYSTEMS AIT, United States.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation

Panel 3: HORIZON SCANNING APPLIED

Panel 3 Speakers' Biography & Presentation
Against a backdrop of increasingly complex challenges, Panel 3 will illustrate how horizon scanning has been applied across several domains - intelligence, the financial markets, and political and foreign policy issues - as well as a cross-cutting analysis of "seven futures".

DAVE SNOWDEN (Moderator)
Founder and Chief Scientific Officer, Cognitive Edge, United Kingdom.
Biography

Gathering Open Source Information and Turning it into Intelligence
ADRIAN TAYLOR
Director, Policy and Strategy Advice, European School of Governance, Germany.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation

Endogenous versus Exogenous Origins of Crises
DIDIER SORNETTE

Chair of Entrepreneurial Risks at ETH Zurich, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Switzerland.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation

Defining Dynamic Political and Foreign Policy Constraints
ERIK PETERSON

Senior Vice President at Center of Strategic and International Studies and Director of the Global Strategy Institution, United States.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation

Strategic Foresight at Deutsche Telekom AG
RENE ROHRBECK

Senior Researcher, Deutsche Telekom Laboratories, Germany.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation

Day 2: Keynote Speaker 2

Keynote Speakers' Biography & Presentation
DAWN YIP (Moderator)
Director, Soulbreath Consulting, Singapore.
Biography

The State of the Blogosphere
DAVE SIFRY

Founder, Technorati.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation

Panel 4: Challenges for Horizon Scanning

Panel 4 Speakers' Biography & Presentation
This panel will deal with the challenges to operationalizing horizon scanning: cognitive biases, practical limits to futures work, communicating scenarios, and making these relevant to the strategic planning process.

Donald Low (Moderator)
Associate Fellow, Civil Service College, Singapore.
Biography

Minimizing Cognitive Bias in Horizon Scanning
Peter Bishop

Associate Professor, Strategic Foresight, University of Houston, United States.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation

Obstacles to Effective Horizon Scanning
Tim Mack

President of World Future Society, United States.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation

The Millennium Project as a Global Horizon Scanning System
Jerome Glenn

Director, The Millennium Project, United States.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation

Anchoring Foresight in National Security Strategic Planning
Stephan De Spiegeleire

Director, Defence Transformation, Hague Centre for Strategic Studies, Netherlands.
Biography | Abstract | Presentation

Symposium Report
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